Barack Obama 2012 President-Elect: Yes we can?

Few doubt the historic significance of Barack Obama’s 2008 Election victory; the first African-American to be President, and with powerful rhetoric suggesting that anything thereafter was possible. However, many doubt his current record, and whether he can deliver. A fragile economy and a battering in the 2010 mid-term Elections suggests a turbulent time ahead, but may a divided alternative aid his cause?

Obama’s powerful “yes we can” message has diminished to “yes we can, but...” in many quarters, with low approval ratings and high unemployment to boot. The mid-terms brought a “shellacking” to the Democrats and Obama, with control of the House lost and the Senate held on to by the slimmest of margins. The radical right ‘Tea Party’ movement captured the imagination of millions of disgruntled Americans, with the “mamma grizzlies” of Sarah Palin and Christine O’Donnell trouncing numerous Democrats. An indication of what is to follow? Despite these bleak statements, numerous commentators believe that the Tea Party movement, a powerful vehicle in shifting the Republican Party further to the Right, actually cost the GOP further seats and control of the Senate, with many moderate Americans alienated and preferring to vote Democrat in marginal seats. Consolation or not, the image of the 2006 Democrat sweep of the House and Senate appears distant, with the 2010 mid-terms more reminiscent of Newt Gingrich’s 1994 “Republican Revolution” against incumbent Democrat Bill Clinton. Obama’s plan for tax cuts for poor and middle income Americans and tax rises for the top earners has already been compromised, with the new Republican Congress threatening tax rises for all Americans if tax cuts for all Americans (including the highest earners) would not be implemented; this across the board tax cut is estimated to cost the Government $6 trillion. Lockdown between Democrats and Republicans has already occurred, with strong divisions over how to tackle the yawning budget deficit and whether to increase the maximum level of debt. Obama’s problems are long term as well as short term.

Obama’s message of preferring to be “a really good one term President than an average two term President” strongly hints at defeatism already. Despite Obama’s record of compromise and bipartisanship, he still has to contend with the liberal Democrat wing of his Party who exclaim that he is not going far enough in his supposedly liberal agenda, an issue shared by the likes of FDR (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) in the past. Yet he has already thrown his hat in to the ring for re-election, and has set a target of raising $1 billion for his 2012 campaign. He invested much political capital in to achieving universal healthcare, a potent issue in the mid-terms, yet the achievement of universal healthcare in the first place (a long term goal by Democrats for generations) is surely to be applauded. His multi-billion dollar economic stimulus package was a bold attempt early in to his Presidency to create jobs and growth. He achieved meaningful bank regulation with the ‘Volcker Rule’, reminiscent of the New Deal’s ‘Glass-Steagall Act’ in restricting the merge of commercial and investment banking. Symbolically, he eliminated the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy of gays in the military, allowing for people in the army to be openly gay without discrimination; this was achieved days before the new Republican Congress took control. He has had his failings; his deadline of closing Guantanamo Bay has passed without its closure, and action on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are works in progress. These problems may yet be eradicated, providing he is re-elected.

So does he stand a chance of re-election? I believe he does. Low approval ratings are of concern, but his ratings are similar or higher at this stage of the Presidency than those of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton; both succeeded in re-election, and in times of tough economic conditions. He is under attack from a resurgent Republican Party, but they are an increasingly divided Party. Despite its mixture of moderates and radicals, its shift to the Right does not appear to be altering, with the Tea Party movement continuing its alienation of various members of society. The Republican nominee contenders of Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin do not share Obama’s oratory power and skills. The nomination of the much maligned Palin could actually aid Obama’s cause. Farcical claims that Obama is a socialist and/or terrorist (and not American) can only serve to play in to Obama’s plans; much like Clinton did against Bob Dole in 1996, he can be the man of moderation in the face of harshly radical rhetoric. Obama’s well drilled and organised activists were crucial to his 2008 success; they will need to be again. These factors all stand him in good stead for 2012.

However, the make or break factor of both his Presidency and re-election remains; the economy. “It’s the economy, stupid” said Bill Clinton’s 1994 campaign manager; a return of the tax and spend stigma of the past will only damage the Democrats. A multi-trillion dollar national debt and deficit will not go away anytime soon, and growth appears slow. The 70 million Americans who voted for Obama in 2008 will not vote for him again if they feel their jobs are under threat, or if indeed there are no jobs at all. Opposition parties across the world often prosper when an incumbent Party is struggling to correct a fragile and economy; the Republicans will return to the White House if the Democrats do not solve this, and they will dismantle such matters as his healthcare reforms along the way. But Democratic members and followers need not wholly despair at such bleak statements. On an admittedly broad platform, a fragile economy did not stop FDR in 1936 and Bill Clinton in 1996 to get re-elected, nor did a turbulent period in 1964 prevent LBJ’s (Lyndon B Johnson) landslide victory. The crucial element, however, is that in the cases of FDR and Clinton, they significantly boosted the economy in their first terms, though not necessarily at the beginning. In LBJ’s case, he arguably rode the sentimental tide of JFK’s (John F Kennedy) death. Obama needs an FDR or Clinton moment; something meaningful and effective in boosting economic recovery, be it a substantial public works programme or a bold tax stand-off against the Republicans.

Re-election is certainly possible. But so much of it hinges on the economy. Recapturing the imagination of millions of Americans is one thing; correcting the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression is quite another.


-Ben