It is not always wise to predict elections that are years away even under normal conditions. If future elections were predicted on poll leads and analysis carried out in the embryonic stages of government, then Margaret Thatcher would have crumbled as one of the worst Prime Ministers ever, and New Labour would still be in power today with a comfortable majority. Nevertheless, these are not normal circumstances in the country today, and the variety of factors involved in making such predictions serves to consider this interesting scenario; who could win in 2015, and how will they win?
A very early and crude prediction could be made on current poll trends. A UK polling report average currently has the Conservatives on 37%, Labour on 41% and the Liberal Democrats on 10%. If this were to translate in to an election, the Tories would have 261 seats, Labour 348 seats and the Lib Dems 16 seats; Labour would have a comfortable 46 seat majority. However, poll trends are often inconsistent, even right up to election day (the 1992 Election was widely assumed to result in a Hung Parliament, with Labour as the largest party; the Tories won with a 21 seat majority). Furthermore, if the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act is fully implemented, then the House of Commons will be reduced in size to 600 seats, therefore putting in to question how these poll percentages are translated in to seats. Another interesting element is the apparent inconsistency in current poll trends; Labour have a comfortable lead, yet Ed Miliband scores the lower than David Cameron and Nick Clegg when based on polls concerned with “who would make the best Prime Minister?” It is clear that polls alone cannot accurately predict elections.
The state of the economy is always a major issue when a General Election occurs; the IMF bailout and the ‘Winter of Discontent’ under Labour rule in the 1970s were key factors in Margaret Thatcher winning for the Conservatives in 1979. David Cameron and the current coalition government remain adamant that they will not change course on their aim to eliminate the structural deficit by the end of the parliament, but they would appear to be paying the price for it currently in terms of popularity. Despite repeated claims from Cameron that Labour do not have a credible alternative, along with attacks on their record in government from 1997-2010, Labour have had a comfortable lead in the polls for some time now. However, are Ed Miliband and Labour merely enjoying the fruits of Opposition? Attacking unpopular moves by incumbent governments more often than not result in short term gains in popularity, but a lot can happen over four or five years. As ever, hypothetical questions form part of the musings; if the deficit is eliminated or significantly reduced, and growth returns before 2015, will the Conservative’s austere measures be rewarded by the electorate? Would Labour be of relevance if the economy regains its strength? In turn, if the deficit reduction plan fails and unemployment remains high, will voters trust Labour again with the economy despite criticisms of their role in the banking crisis in 2008?
For David Cameron to win, his core aim needs to be an increase in growth and employment, whilst at the same time receiving justification for his deficit reduction plan. He needs the coalition to be seen as a success, whilst at the same time appeasing the Tory Right and backbenchers. However, the Tories will be also desperate to gain an overall majority next time, but to do so they need to fulfil the above aims, and more. This will be considerably difficult. Despite extensive attempts to ‘detoxify’ the Tory brand, the Conservatives are still seen by many as ‘the nasty party’, especially as in these tough economic climes they still appear to large parts of the electorate to be the party of the affluent; calls for the 50p tax rate to be scrapped have been met with outcry. Cameron can rely on traditional Tory heartlands to deliver votes and MPs, but as with Tony Blair in 1997, the modernisation process means that he needs to attract swinging voters from the Centre ground; his desire to present himself as a “compassionate Conservative” and a “liberal Conservative” may be easier to apply with a more stable economy. Interestingly (and perhaps crucially if he wants to attract centrist voters), Cameron had promised to match New Labour’s public spending “pound for pound” before the global economic crisis; would this pledge, and others, be reinstated after 2015? Furthermore, voters need to feel reassured that the country is safe in the hands of the Conservatives; will jobs be created? Will growth increase? These questions are applicable now as well as in 2015.
For Ed Miliband to win, he needs to present to the country a coherent strategy on dealing with the economy, but crucially he also needs to define what the Labour party are now. On winning the leadership, Miliband declared that “New Labour is dead”, a claim that will go down well with activists and supporters, but (ideologically) perhaps not with the rest of the country. New Labour’s modernisation method attracted numerous Tory voters and “middle England”, and for Labour to win in 2015 they have to convince the people who voted Conservative in 2010. It looks a fair bet that Labour will drain support from the Liberal Democrats, notably student support as anger over tuition fees remains a contentious subject. This will not be enough. Many people deserted Labour because they felt that they had lost competence over the handling over the economy; David Cameron repeatedly targets them as the culprits for the lack of banking regulation and a ballooning deficit. They have benefited in the short term popularity stakes, but Tony Blair’s warning that Labour “won’t win again” if they “default to a Tory cutters, Lib Dem collaborators” mode is a real threat. Miliband’s low personal ratings are not finite, but they are an indication at the moment that most voters currently cannot envisage him as Prime Minister. If the United Kingdom is indeed conservative with a small ‘c’, the influence of trade unionism over Miliband’s ascent to the Labour leadership will not go down well. Tactically, he is making the right move in distancing himself from the unions, but not only will the tag ‘Red Ed’ not subside with ease, but the still heavily influential trade union movement may yet hamper his plans over policy. The coalition are unpopular enough as things stand, but if their hopes for growth and prosperity fail, then a competent and confident opposition can throw them out; Labour need to be such an opposition.
For Nick Clegg to win, he needs nothing short of a miracle. “Cleggmania” was not enough to deliver the Liberal Democrats a majority in 2010, now they need a spark merely to deliver them a respectable return of MPs. For a start, Clegg’s “muscular liberalism” of trumpeting Lib Dem ‘victories’ in the coalition, along with pinpointing where they have neutralised the Tories, looks to have steadied the ship for now, and they will need to continue in this vein throughout the course of this parliament. Encouraging tribalism and ‘battles’ won’t endear the Lib Dems to voter’s hearts immediately, but this form of differentiation would hopefully strike a chord with people who feel the Lib Dems are nothing more than an imminent merger with the Conservatives. More crucially, they need to reconnect with many of the 7 million voters that they have lost since 2010. This will be much more difficult. Whilst Labour and the Liberal Democrats have shown that student support can waver in vicious cycles, the latter party are unlikely to be forgiven any time soon over their U-turn on tuition fees. To combat rather than retrieve this loss, they could veer rightwards to the ‘Orange Book’ instincts of the party, and try and attract coalition enthusiasts who admire their moderating influence; unfortunately coalition enthusiasts are hard to come by these days. The Liberal Democrats’ best hope is for their policies (with strong emphasis on ‘their’) to be seen as working, whilst at the same time widening the gap between themselves and the Conservatives so that come the 2015 Election, voters can see clear distance between the two. For the coalition to be seen as a success, Clegg needs to stay, for now. A change of leader just before polling day in 2015 could work (Tim Farron, the favourite, scores highly with the grass-roots), but in a precarious situation, this could be a significant gamble. In short, the Lib Dems need to rediscover what made them so popular, whilst at the same time proving to new voters that they are now a party of (and maybe even for) government.
It is clear that a lot of work needs to be done by each of the three main parties. It is virtually impossible for other political parties to be in the running for the country in 2015, but they can all play an important role as the ‘big three’ try to win; UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) can exploit strong anti-Europe sentiment and drain Tory support, whilst the Green Party can build on their 2010 success of electing their first MP by displacing the Lib Dems as the ‘radical’ party. Parties such as Plaid Cymru and the SNP (Scottish National Party) can play on nationalistic sentiment and damage the credibility of Labour, the Conservative and the Lib Dems in devolved administrations. Interestingly, 2015 could be the first election for many years where there is everything to lose for the three main parties. Labour could fail to buck the historical trend of facing wilderness years in opposition; the Tories could be marked with the ‘nasty party’ image again and suffer landslide defeats, and the Liberal Democrats could spell the end of three party politics, and be all but wiped out. On current form, Labour have the best chance, but it will be far from easy, and failure could be long lasting.
Who do I think will win? It is genuinely hard to call, with the numerous ‘what if’ factors being the key determiners. It narrows down to how well economically the coalition performs, and how competently Labour perform as the opposition. Rightly or wrongly, I predict a Labour victory. I cannot envisage another 36%-29%-23% split (Conservative-Labour-Lib Dem), as I believe the Lib Dems will find it very difficult to gain voters again; this offers an opportunity for much of their support to be drained by another party-most likely Labour. The unpopular deficit reduction policies will not be forgotten even if safer economic waters are found, and, as seen by numerous riots and demonstrations, significant anti-Tory sentiment could be mobilised. Labour also have the benefit of time in shaping their destiny, something which the Conservatives and Lib Dems can’t consider as much as they strive to make things work. I’m ever wary that events can change dramatically, and any prediction that I make now could be widely off the mark in 2015. However, for now I envisage a comfortable, but not emphatic, majority for Labour in 2015. I leave you with this to ponder for another time; can victory be achieved under Ed Miliband?
-Ben
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