Nick Clegg called for “muscular liberalism” after the crushing AV referendum defeat in 2011, a strategy designed for differentiation from the Conservatives, and the emphasis of Lib Dem achievements in Government. Whilst few can disagree with the popularity of raising the income tax threshold (although Ed Miliband has stubbornly refused to endorse it), polling has regularly shown single-digit voting intentions for the beleaguered party. Numerous by-elections have dampened morale, with results slipping down to as low as eighth in some constituencies. This result therefore should not be underestimated; significant contextual features should have indicated a bruising defeat. The Liberal Democrats’ long term unpopularity is obvious and almost monotonously repeated: Coalition, tuition fees, ‘selling out’, ‘Cleggzilla’. These features alone should have been enough theoretically to prevent Mike Thornton from reclaiming Eastleigh. Nevertheless, Chris Huhne resigned in shame (I did a blog piece on his decline in February), a fact played on well by Conservative candidate Maria Hutchings running on a “candidate you can trust” slogan. Furthermore, issues over the serious but considerably overblown Lord Rennard sexual harassment charges were well marked by the media, and put a stain on the party’s reputation. Despite this, I make reference to Iain Dowie and Soccer AM’s dictionary entry of “bouncebackability”, and it could not have been more crucial.
The warning signs are still there. The Lib Dems suffered a 19.3% swing to Diane James and UKIP, and with 32.06% of the vote it was a tight race. It is David Cameron who will be feeling the heat, however. Despite promising and in-out referendum on the EU, the Tories were beaten into third place by UKIP, leading to Nigel Farage perhaps mischievously noting that “had the Tories not split our vote, we would have won”. Contrary to my long term prediction, UKIP support is still going strong, although perhaps for different reasons now. UKIP are still (relatively) prospering as a protest vote, but it is unclear whether people are now voting for them in spite of their policies, and not because of them. Farage said that people were now voting for UKIP instead of “three social democrat parties who are indistinguishable from each other”, perhaps hinting at a bigger focus on UKIP’s thin domestic plank rather than their anti-EU message. I would hope people aren’t voting UKIP because they are sympathetic towards a regressive flat rate of tax, or the reintroduction of grammar schools and deeper spending cuts into the economy, but if Farage’s latest comment strikes a chord, then maybe they are.
UKIP MEP Marta Andreasen recently defected to the Tories, and accused Farage of being “anti-women” and “a stalinist”, with Farage’s riposte that “the woman is impossible”, further adding that the Tories “are welcome to her”, perhaps underlining the true nature of the party. Whatever the UKIP message, Clegg is now given breathing space; challenges to his leadership will subside for now. Cameron, on the other hand, is stuck. Does he move further to the right in order to outflank UKIP, or does he continue his weak ‘detoxifcation’ treatment? Either way, his chances of winning a majority in 2015 are slim.
The (understandable) theme that is likely to emanate from the Lib Dems is the desire to preserve as many seats as possible, rather than optimistically aim for new ones in 2015. This is not defeatist; the party have at times been clinging on for their lives. With the majority of Lib Dem seats having the Tories as their principal challenger, Eastleigh is therefore a crucial demonstration of their ability to fight their Coalition partners. There are a supposed 10-20 target seats for the Conservatives which are held by the Lib Dems; crucial to the Tories if they want a majority. Whilst the Lib Dems are frequently mocked, Eastleigh displayed the rugged organisational skills which have served them so well over the years. Perversely, a strong UKIP presence may well aid the Lib Dems by siphoning the Tory vote, as it did in Eastleigh. It is ironic that the Tories brutally rallied in Machiavellian fashion against the voting system that could well have won them the battle here; the Alternative Vote. Whilst UKIP are a threat, they have yet to master what the Lib Dems did as the original protest party of the Paddy Ashdown to Charles Kennedy era; winning by-elections. They regularly overturned huge majorities, ironically with the help of chief strategist Chris Rennard.
This result stresses once more the need for Cameron and Miliband to take seriously the threat of the Lib Dems to chances of a majority for either party. Miliband’s ‘One-Nation’ message did not make any inroads into this southern seat; not a major problem in the unwinnable seat of Eastleigh, but a key concern if the Lib Dems replicate this success in other southern areas. Cameron’s defenders will note that incumbent Governments rarely win by-elections, and whilst this is true it merely highlights further the achievements of the Lib Dems here; as the junior members and often shields of an unpopular Coalition, they nevertheless prevailed. Labour will be gleeful at another bombshell for Cameron, Nigel Farage and UKIP will hail it as a success against the ‘doomed Tories’ and the political class, the siren voices of the Tory Right will ever increase their shrill tones, but the real winners here are Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats.
