Brexit is anything but 'done'. There's no doubt that Boris Johnson's 'Get Brexit Done' mantra worked very effectively at the 2019 General Election, despite an appetite from many for the contrary. However, the full effects of our future relationship with the European Union have yet to be established. The Government's position is clear that there'll be no request for an extension to the transition period and bill heralding the ending of free movement has recently passed the House of Commons. The UK has until the end of December to agree to a free trade deal, whilst simultaneously dealing with a global pandemic. The 'simple' task of ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement was never going to signify the end of the Brexit debate.
Things could get far worse from here. The economy has been ruptured massively by Covid-19 and if a second wave arrives we could be starting 2021 with more lockdown restrictions and a No Deal Brexit. It may be the case that our ills can no longer be blamed on the EU in that scenario. So what of the potential movement to rejoin the EU?
Few politicians are daring to admit the possibility in public. During the 2020 Labour leadership contest Jess Phillips had pondered on the idea, saying "if our country is safer, if it is more economically viable to be in the European Union, then I will fight for that regardless of how difficult that argument is to make", before backpedaling and saying it wouldn't feature in the next manifesto. Wera Hobhouse was more forthright in her support of the idea, before she backed out of the Lib Dem race: "We must keep the flame of EU membership alive as a genuine possibility for Britain, because if the flame goes out it may never be relit". The two remaining candidates, Layla Moran and Sir Ed Davey, are focusing their pitches on UBI (Universal Basic Income) and the environment/social care respectively. Neither of them are talking up the possibility of a rejoin movement.
The drawbacks to the idea are obvious. Brexit has undoubtedly poisoned debate in the UK, and reasoned arguments for and against it are often drawn out by who can shout loudest on social media. Remain politicians who kept trying to rebut the 'we had a referendum and Leave won: get over it' line in 2019 are unlikely to find it any easier to say to the same Leave voters "look, let's try again shall we?" A collective anxiety and nausea of referendum debates has swept the country for years now, and a re-opening of the debate won't generate enthusiasm. But what if this became a different debate entirely?
A rejoin campaign would not be the establishment position. The Conservatives will be in power until at least 2024 barring any seismic political developments (which of course could happen) and on the EU question there are no longer any dissenting voices in their parliamentary ranks. If the economy continues to tank next year (whether a trade deal is agreed or not) the EU won't be the strawman blame figure any longer. The Boris Johnson language on Brexit is always an optimistic one: we will thrive. We will prosper. But what if we don't? The argument for rejoining the biggest trading bloc in the world might just become more appetizing.
The challenge is making the argument in the first place, and unequivocally. Campaigners would no longer face the awkwardness of sharing a platform with a Prime Minister they spent years opposing. In a reversal from 2016 rejoiners could level any under performance in the economy firmly at the door of the Leave consensus in Government. Newly enfranchised members of Generation Z would likely vote in their droves to rejoin the EU, potentially shifting the balance in Leave-Rejoin demographics. Rejoiners would also have a clearer message in trying to convert Leave voters: we were promised frictionless trade. We were promised sunny uplands. We were promised £350 million a week for the NHS. We were promised more control, and they didn't deliver. A rejoin campaign would be wise to avoid messaging around "you were idiots to vote Leave, so try again" or "we'll get our own back now". A genuinely inclusive pitch which focuses ire at the Leave politicians who promised much and delivered little, rather than Leave voters, could be a very powerful one indeed.
The why is easy, but the how is very difficult. We've seen from 2014 in Scotland and 2016 in the UK that plebiscites do not heal divisions or 'settle' debates effectively. Arguing for another one, even from a perversely stronger position, would not be easy. A far simpler mandate would be for a party to campaign on a promise to take the UK back into the EU, if elected. In terms of the 'will of the people' argument, the response can be "we made an unequivocal commitment to do this if elected; that's our mandate". This idea could be strengthened further if multiple parties make a similar commitment, therefore increasing the arithmetic in the House of Commons and the popular demand. Yet this path is laden with issues, too. Ardent Leavers who voted 'out' in 2016 in a referendum are unlikely to be placated by that decision being reversed in a General Election, even if they had a party to vote for (likely to be the Conservative/Brexit Party axis) intent on keeping the new status quo. But democracy is never easy. We make the case and continue advancing our arguments not because it's easy, but because we believe in our convictions.
What does history tell us about similar events? The 1975 referendum on the Common Market was a far more decisive outcome: 67-33. And yet prominent 'No' campaigner Enoch Powell made the following arguments in an interview with Robin Day after his side's crushing defeat:
Day: Mr Powell, there wasn’t much point in advising people to vote Labour from the point of view of staying in or coming out of the Common Market, was there?
Powell: I’m always in favour of a question being reopened as important as this. It has been reopened and now we have a provisional result which takes us on to the next stage.
Day: Why do you say “a provisional result”, and what is the next stage?
Powell: Oh, I’m just replying on the Government’s official statement.
Day: Can I read it for you? “Our continued membership will depend on the continuing assent of Parliament”
Powell: Yes, that’s the one. And since Parliament will be continuously re-elected by the electorate, then this is an ongoing debate.
Later in the interview he even likened the debate to 'a kind of Munich':
Powell: This is like September 1938. In September, October 1938 I’m sure that, if Neville Chamberlain had gone to the country, he would have swept the country for an act of abnegation. But the very same people, within 12 months, when they saw behind the facade, when they penetrated to the realities, stood up to fight for the continued existence of our nation; and that’s what will happen.
The irony here is that Enoch Powell is calling for the question to be asked repeatedly until he gets the answer he wants - a charge frequently aimed at Remainers. Similarly, it's unlikely that the ERG, Nigel Farage and company would've have sulked away quietly had the 2016 referendum gone against them. And why should they? Clearly, there's a precedent for continuing to advance arguments in the face of electoral setbacks.
I can't see 2024 being a rejoin election. The Tories will likely campaign on a 'we got Brexit done' platform, but that won't fly if the economy is struggling. The Labour Party, potentially resurgent under Sir Keir Starmer, are unlikely to back rejoining either. Starmer very well may argue that they can get a better trade deal with the EU (or indeed any trade deal at all with the EU), but as he tries to pitch for swing voters he's unlikely to want to rock the boat on the EU question. I imagine the Liberal Democrats will leave rejoining open ended whilst focusing on other issues in 2024. By the next hypothetical election after that (2028 or 2029) Leave will have had nearly a decade to prove itself capable. If Leave arguments continue to falter, we may just see a rejoin shift by the end of this decade. In that scenario, it will have the luxury and populism of being against the establishment.
