The relatively short period of time between now and the 2015 General Election on May 7th was highlighted when the election campaign officially began on Friday 19th December. Polling day is just over four months away, and nobody can decisively predict the outcome.
I recently looked back at my 2011 prediction for 2015 (I did write back then that it was relatively premature to hazard a guess!): http://viewsfromthecentre-left.blogspot.co.uk/2011/10/2015-general-election-whos-going-to-win.html
It is clear that, over time, I have needed to significantly alter my estimate. I predicted a “comfortable, but not emphatic majority for Labour in 2015”, whilst wary that “events can change dramatically”. I also pondered the question “can victory be achieved under Ed Miliband?” The “comfortable, but not emphatic” victory is no longer my opinion, as the election is genuinely too close to call. Nevertheless, my questions for Ed Miliband remain the same today, that he “needs to present to the country a coherent strategy on dealing with the economy, but crucially he also needs to define what the Labour party are now”. Have these questions been answered? Put it this way; can you succinctly sum up Labour’s economic strategy? I certainly can’t. In terms of Labour’s identity, we’ve had Old Labour, New Labour, Blue Labour, predistribution Labour, One Nation Labour, with the latter three labels emerging within this Parliament! I also said that draining Liberal Democrat support wouldn’t be enough, and that appears to remain the case now.
I noted that the Conservatives needed an increase in growth and employment along with justification for their deficit reduction strategy to win in 2015. The Coalition has certainly delivered on the former; at the time of my October 2011 blog entry, 2.68 million people were unemployed compared to 1.96 million in October of this year, whilst UK growth returned to pre-recession levels in the second quarter of this year. However, with regards to justification for the deficit approach, the jury is still out; it has forced Labour to balance between renewal and ‘tough talk’ on spending cuts, but it also stands in a bad light in comparison to George Osborne’s original pledge to eliminate the deficit by 2015 (2018 is now the target). The Conservatives’ temptations to crudely imitate Ukip are well documented, and in Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless they have already suffered defections to Nigel Farage’s party.
The challenges for the Liberal Democrats that I listed back in 2011 remain the same, that they need to shake off consistent unpopularity and receive justification for what they have achieved in the Coalition. Tuition fees are still used as a stick to beat the party with, but when you look at the context of 2010 and the record number of students in the present day, it doesn’t have to be as daunting an issue to face as it seems. On a local and personal level, I need to do my best to be a credible candidate for the Derbyshire Dales, to not only hold the Rt Hon. Patrick McLoughlin MP to account, but to also challenge the duopoly of Labour at County Council level and the Tories at District Council level. On a national level, I’m desperate to see the party raise the income tax threshold further. The personal allowance level will hit £10,600 in April, and with a Lib Dem presence in government it will rise to £12,500 over the next Parliament, with National Insurance thresholds aligned.
Interestingly, I made only one reference to Ukip in my 2011 blog predictions, which says much about how quickly and significantly they have barged into national politics over the last couple of years. This reference, nevertheless, holds true for 2015, although the ‘big three’ tag doesn’t apply anymore, as I noted “it is virtually impossible for other political parties to be in the running for the country in 2015, but they can all play an important role as the ‘big three’ try to win...UKIP can exploit strong anti-Europe sentiment and drain Tory support, whilst the Green Party can build on their 2010 success...as the ‘radical’ party”. Add the SNP to the mix to “damage the credibility of Labour”, and you have multi-party politics in action in 2015, and slim chances of having an overall majority. However well the likes of Ukip and company do in 2015, they are unlikely to have a fair reflection of seats from votes, so it is my hope (as ever) that electoral reform is back on the agenda post-2015.
Much has changed since late 2011, but whilst I have changed my overall prediction, the challenges listed for each party back then still apply, although fresh challenges have since emerged. My view now is that the performance of the party leaders in the spring of 2015 will shape the outcome of the election, with the TV debates once again key (rumoured to be in a 2-3-5 party format). For now, I predict a hung parliament, but I can’t guess who the largest party will be, nor can a multi-party coalition be ruled out.
Hopes for 2015
-Recognition of Liberal Democrat achievements in government, along with acknowledgement of blocked Tory agendas
-Higher scrutiny of Nigel Farage and Ukip as a whole
-Significant discrediting of Russell Brand’s “revolution-don’t vote” platform
Fears for 2015
-Liberal Democrat achievements from 2010 to fall on deaf and/or unwilling ears
-Ukip to continue to rise in the polls; imagine Nigel Farage as Deputy Prime Minister in 2015!
-Tribalism and populism to take over, with no room for compromise or sensible discussion
Merry Christmas everyone!
