2015: Coalition Mark II?

2015: Coalition Mark II?

For perhaps the first time (surprisingly), I wish to use a football-based analogy. As a Derby County fan, I am fully aware of the unpredictability of the nPower Championship. The cliché that “anybody can beat anybody” is nevertheless true, and compared to the relatively cast-iron nature of the Premier League, it is often rather foolish to predict what the result will be next Saturday, let alone for the whole season. Similarly, poll leads and expert analysis are little to go on with regard to General Elections; just ask Neil Kinnock, who had regular poll leads over Mrs Thatcher. Nevertheless, it does not stop newspapers on all sides giving regular poll reports and predictions, with new policy initiatives associated with “how to win over voters” come Election Day. As a budding politician, I find it hard not to speculate myself, and as political events shape the debate, I find myself frequently revising my predictions.

In my October 2011 entry, I concluded that a comfortable rather than emphatic Labour victory would be the likely scenario. Furthermore, I noted that David Cameron desperately needed more growth in the economy whilst combating the Tory Right, whilst Miliband needed to establish a coherent strategy, whilst Clegg had to differentiate further from his Coalition partners. Two years on, and it is a mixed bag. Miliband and his ‘One Nation Labour’ brand has been converted to the Lib Dem mansion tax on households worth over £2 million, promising to use the proceeds to reintroduce the 10p rate of tax scrapped by Gordon Brown in 2007. In addition to this, calls for more investment in infrastructure have led newspapers such as The Independent to deduce that Labour plans to outspend the Conservatives in 2015. Clegg vetoed proposed boundary changes (believed to be worth 20 seats to the Tories) after plans to elect the House of Lords were defeated, and has recently blocked proposed changes to childcare after vocal opposition from experts. For Cameron, the situation has worsened. Growth is anaemically slow, and the ‘Tea Party tendency’ of his Party has resulted in yet more headaches over the EU, forcing the offer of a referendum on renegotiated terms in 2017. More frustrating than this, Nigel Farage and UKIP have gone from strength to strength, scoring impressive results in by-elections and polling higher than the Liberal Democrats in many cases.

These factors make the outcome of the 2015 Election even less clear, and therefore even more fascinating. A May 12th ‘poll of polls’ (found here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/) has the Labour Party on 39%, the Conservatives on 31% and the Lib Dems on 10%, a solid if unspectacular lead for Labour. Despite this, Miliband has been criticised for not doing better in the face of an unpopular Coalition. Although consistent with my 2011 prediction so far, the double-digit polling of UKIP has yet to be taken into account. Under FPTP, UKIP are unlikely to gain more than 5 MPs (at a generous estimate), yet their siphoning of Tory votes could severely damage Cameron’s hopes of a majority. Labour are likely to gain almost all of the seats where they are second to the Liberal Democrats, but they have yet to prove that they are capable of gaining seats in the South of England. Whilst many are deriding the Lib Dems and predicting their demise, the UKIP presence could conversely help them. The Eastleigh by-election is a case in point; the vote was split between the Tories and UKIP, allowing for the Lib Dems to claim the seat. Furthermore, winning Eastleigh despite a massive drop in popularity and the resignation of a disgraced former member of the Cabinet highlights a ‘never say die’ spirit in the Party (a “sheer bloody resilience; they won’t lie down”, according to one Tory), along with their impressive local organisation. The majority of Lib Dem seats have the Tories in second place; if they can replicate Eastleigh in “40 by-elections”, they could preserve their fortunes whilst denting the Tories’.

I still predict that Labour will be the largest Party, but a hung parliament is not out of the question. Labour are likely to gain 17 seats off the Lib Dems (where Labour are currently second), along with Labour-Conservative marginals such as Amber Valley, where centrists may have given David Cameron the benefit of the doubt in 2010, but are unlikely to do so in 2015. Whilst I hate the idea of tactical voting, it is a necessity under FPTP, and Labour and the Lib Dems may well have to come to a tacit arrangement to ensure that the left-leaning vote doesn’t totally collapse in Lib Dem seats where the Tories are second, otherwise it is the latter Party rather than Labour who will benefit. It will be very difficult for David Cameron to win a majority without bruising his Coalition partners, and he is unlikely to retain seats where Labour are a close second. If the Lib Dems can gain a respectable 30-40 MPs in vicious circumstances, they will have done well.

What if a hung parliament is the outcome? If Labour are indeed the largest Party, the Lib Dems could yet again hold the balance of power. If this is the case, they would be foolish not to contemplate a Coalition with Labour; a ‘sequel pact’ with the Tories would lead to political oblivion and a mass desertion of support (again). It is likely that bridges between Labour and the Lib Dems remain burnt, and I cannot imagine Miliband being an enthusiastic supporter of a Coalition; he and Ed Balls declared their wish to go into Opposition during 2010 talks between the parties. However, on paper a progressive Coalition could be an attractive one. Common ground could easily be found in areas such as Europe and taxation (think mansion tax and taking the lowest paid out of tax), whilst the Lib Dems could curb any illiberal tendencies still prominent within Labour ranks, and in turn a potential Labour pledge to abolish tuition fees may be readily accepted by a Lib Dem Party still haunted by the NUS pledge.

Hypothetically, the prospect of electoral reform re-emerging is a fascinating but unlikely one. Whilst Miliband supported AV, it is unlikely that he would go to the country again with another referendum on the issue so soon after it was roundly rejected, and it would be feeble for the Lib Dems to once again support a fairer but nevertheless disenfranchising system. 2010 showed that the Lib Dems will not necessarily demand “PR or else” in Coalition talks, and a return to this approach would probably result in Miliband rejecting it out of hand and calling a second Election, but can he take that risk? A referendum on PR is a possibility, but the Lib Dems would do better to finally achieve a breakthrough in electoral reform and safeguard their chances by demanding more; perhaps guaranteed AV with a referendum on PR?

Once again, the TV debates could shape the Election, although David Cameron’s team have suggested that he will decline to participate. I have revised my 2015 Election prediction slightly; Labour will be the largest Party, but with a small majority of around 20 plus. The Tories have every reason to be pessimistic about 2015, but a Labour Party hostile to a Coalition with the Lib Dems may have the chance to win an Election after only one term in Opposition for the first time in their history, and have to be prepared to be receptive to the Lib Dems (with Nick Clegg perhaps the price of any Coalition deal). For the Lib Dems, the old adage may yet be preserved: “in the event of a nuclear holocaust, all that will remain of life on earth will be cockroaches, and Lib Dem activists handing out Focus leaflets”.