The 2010 General Election resulted in what was a painful but necessary decision for the Liberal Democrats to join the Conservatives in a Coalition. Much media talk is made of the tension between the Blairites and Brownites (or are they now Milibandites?) in the Labour Party, and the detoxifiers and Tea-Party tendencies in the Tory ranks, yet these tensions exist in the Lib Dems, too. The Beveridge group on the centre-left wing of the Party is often at odds with the Orange Book side, who are more individualist and economically liberal by inclination. Despite this, the Lib Dems often present a united front, and when it comes to their flagship policies and the decision to enter a Coalition, they are near-unanimous in agreement. Nevertheless, the 2015 Election and subsequent consequences may decide which direction the Party heads in; which wing will emerge victorious?
Broadly speaking, the Party seems to be inclined towards the Beveridge group at a membership level, yet in terms of its leadership is very much an Orange Book setup. Party leader and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg penned “Europe-a Liberal future”, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Davey contributed “Liberalism and localism”, Business Secretary (and until 2010 Deputy Leader) Vince Cable has written “Liberal economics and social justice”, whilst former Chief Secretary to the Treasury and current Education minister David Laws wrote “Reclaiming Liberalism: a liberal agenda for the Liberal Democrats”. Pensions minister Steve Webb is also a contributor, and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander is very much in the Orange Book mould. Memories will be evoked of the SDP-Liberal Alliance dynamic and its conflicts under David Steel and David Owen, but modern day distinctions drawn from the merged party’s birth in 1988 aren’t clear cut; Orange Booker Vince Cable was an SDP member prior to the merger, yet his ally is the more left wing Lib Dem Peer Matthew Oakeshott.
The Social Liberal Forum serves as an internal pressure group, approving the decision to join the Coalition but in opposition to NHS reforms and certain spending cuts. In addition to this, they have called for an ‘Economic Plan C’, which includes demands for a living wage, an increase in employment insurance, challenging the 1980s and 1990s’ neoliberal orthodoxies and a FFT (Financial Transactions Tax; better known as the ‘Robin Hood’ tax). Whilst the Orange Book section could arguably be sympathetic to some of these commitments, the Lib Dem Cabinet members are unlikely to lobby the Coalition for their inclusion, and the Orange Book call for individual health insurance is anathema to the Social Liberal Forum. A bigger concern for the Beveridge group (including me) is that David Laws has been announced as the author of the 2015 manifesto. Laws has been quoted as saying “I’m a liberal, not a tory”, which hints at this right wing leanings, and it is believed by some that had the Conservative stance on homosexuals in the 1980s not been so severe, he would have joined the Conservative Party. Laws is likely to call for the Party to drop its manifesto commitment to abolishing tuition fees, and is probably more receptive to further rounds of spending cuts. The Social Liberal Forum would not tolerate this.
With these issues in mind, it makes sense for Clegg to try and claim the centre ground. The Orange Book wing may call for a shift to the right as Labour-leaning voters have largely left the party after the tuition fee debacle, but this would seek to alienate the left-leaning support within the Lib Dem ranks. However, the future direction of the party hinges a lot on the outcome of the 2015 General Election. If the Lib Dems are hammered and haemorrhage large amounts of MPs, the clamour for Clegg to resign will be huge, with a potential opening for a Beveridge group MP to claim the leadership as a ‘change’ candidate. On the flip side, if Clegg can replicate Eastleigh in “57 by-elections” and stem their losses, then his position would be strengthened and he could be the man to lead the party into another Coalition.
For hypothetical reasons, let’s consider the event of a leadership election in 2015. Party President Tim Farron is very popular with the left of the Lib Dems, and has frequently been touted as a future leader. Ed Davey would be the likely candidate for the Orange Book side, and would have the backing of the more prominent Lib Dem MPs. In terms of appealing to former Lib Dem voters disaffected with the Coalition, Farron could have the edge over Davey in trying to win them back, especially as he voted against the 2010 tuition fee increase. However, Simon Hughes may yet throw his hat into the ring one last time, which could split the vote on the left. Furthermore, despite showing little appetite for the top job in the past, Vince Cable has been rumoured to be privately launching a leadership campaign. As both an Orange Booker and a Social Liberal Forum member (his chief supporter is Lord Oakeshott), Cable could clinch the election in one fell swoop.
The Beveridge group will always have a strong presence in the party, but at the present time the Orange Book side appear to be leading the way. If the party is to swing one way or the other, it will be predicated on the 2015 Election result. Even that may not totally remove one element or the other. As I have alluded to, the Lib Dems are paradoxically a divided party capable of presenting a united front. Radical policies such as raising the income tax threshold to £10,000 appeals to the Orange Book side of cutting taxes rather than increasing benefits, and the Beveridge group side of helping the poorest. Unlike the Conservative Party, there are no divisions over gay marriage or Europe in the Lib Dems, and you’ll be hard pressed to find a Beveridge group Lib Dem demanding that the party leaves the Coalition. The 2015 manifesto could give a better indication of what is to come, but a potential Coalition with Labour could yet catapult the Social Liberal Forum into the front seat.
Social Liberal Forum; ‘Economic Plan C’ link: http://socialliberal.net/slf-publications/economic-plan-c/
With these issues in mind, it makes sense for Clegg to try and claim the centre ground. The Orange Book wing may call for a shift to the right as Labour-leaning voters have largely left the party after the tuition fee debacle, but this would seek to alienate the left-leaning support within the Lib Dem ranks. However, the future direction of the party hinges a lot on the outcome of the 2015 General Election. If the Lib Dems are hammered and haemorrhage large amounts of MPs, the clamour for Clegg to resign will be huge, with a potential opening for a Beveridge group MP to claim the leadership as a ‘change’ candidate. On the flip side, if Clegg can replicate Eastleigh in “57 by-elections” and stem their losses, then his position would be strengthened and he could be the man to lead the party into another Coalition.
For hypothetical reasons, let’s consider the event of a leadership election in 2015. Party President Tim Farron is very popular with the left of the Lib Dems, and has frequently been touted as a future leader. Ed Davey would be the likely candidate for the Orange Book side, and would have the backing of the more prominent Lib Dem MPs. In terms of appealing to former Lib Dem voters disaffected with the Coalition, Farron could have the edge over Davey in trying to win them back, especially as he voted against the 2010 tuition fee increase. However, Simon Hughes may yet throw his hat into the ring one last time, which could split the vote on the left. Furthermore, despite showing little appetite for the top job in the past, Vince Cable has been rumoured to be privately launching a leadership campaign. As both an Orange Booker and a Social Liberal Forum member (his chief supporter is Lord Oakeshott), Cable could clinch the election in one fell swoop.
The Beveridge group will always have a strong presence in the party, but at the present time the Orange Book side appear to be leading the way. If the party is to swing one way or the other, it will be predicated on the 2015 Election result. Even that may not totally remove one element or the other. As I have alluded to, the Lib Dems are paradoxically a divided party capable of presenting a united front. Radical policies such as raising the income tax threshold to £10,000 appeals to the Orange Book side of cutting taxes rather than increasing benefits, and the Beveridge group side of helping the poorest. Unlike the Conservative Party, there are no divisions over gay marriage or Europe in the Lib Dems, and you’ll be hard pressed to find a Beveridge group Lib Dem demanding that the party leaves the Coalition. The 2015 manifesto could give a better indication of what is to come, but a potential Coalition with Labour could yet catapult the Social Liberal Forum into the front seat.
Social Liberal Forum; ‘Economic Plan C’ link: http://socialliberal.net/slf-publications/economic-plan-c/
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