Of ‘the big four’, the Lib Dems arguably have the least to lose

The ever-changing fortunes of political parties are forever magnified, so much so that even those who are indifferent to politics have some sort of awareness towards the current state of things; the Tories are losing it over Europe, UKIP are the new third party, Miliband’s leadership abilities are questionable, and so on. This consensus has altered slightly in recent weeks due in part to subtle hints of economic recovery; Labour’s imposing poll lead has shortened considerably, giving the Conservatives new hope. However, the Liberal Democrats have gone relatively unnoticed under the political microscope, and as the focus on the 2015 General Election is forever debated, the Lib Dems arguably have the least to lose.

There should be no illusions or complacency; the Liberal Democrats are still unpopular with significant swathes of people, and this lack of media publicity does not necessarily equate to newfound popularity. However, there is still optimism and fighting talk within Party ranks, and this lack of publicity is beneficial to a degree. The Eastleigh by-election, triggered after the resignation of the disgraced Chris Huhne, should have been yet another humiliating defeat for the Lib Dems, an indication of a wipeout in 2015. Instead, whilst the media focused on Conservative woes and the surge of UKIP, the Lib Dems hung onto Eastleigh through vigorous local campaigning and sheer bloody mindedness. UKIP claimed the headlines after finishing second, whilst the ‘parrot squawked’ and was left content with a crucial victory.

Eastleigh not only represented an against the odds victory (or ‘bouncebackability’, to quote Soccer AM), but it highlighted the escalating pressures of the other parties. Nigel Farage has declared that UKIP are no longer a protest party, but a serious political voice; that at the very least has to translate into seats in Parliament in 2015 for that to hold true. Under FPTP, that is very unlikely. Labour came fourth in (admittedly) an unwinnable seat, but their mission to win in the South of England (important for an overall majority) looks daunting. The Conservatives have division within their own ranks, and now a split on the Right with UKIP. The Liberal Democrats have a big mission too; to stem the predicted loss of seats in ‘57 by-elections’. This will be immensely difficult, but Eastleigh showed that it can be achieved, and the considerably tougher tasks of the other three parties should in turn benefit the Lib Dems.

If we are to take Farage by his word and consider UKIP as a serious political party, then they are falling into traps already. UKIP MEP Godfrey Bloom’s “Bongo Bongo Land” comments have drawn offence and derision, but they are not the first comments of disrepute to erupt from UKP ranks; there are only so many times that the Party can apologise and insist the such bile is unrepresentative of UKIP policies as a whole before they essentially taken on a Sarah Palin demeanour, and look what has happened to her political career since. Can UKIP be taken seriously? The Coalition has already pledged to have referendum on the EU; a poor parliamentary performance in 2015 after so much hype followed by the EU ‘No’ campaign losing in 2017 could banish them to obscurity a la the BNP.

Labour have a great chance to win an overall majority after one term in Opposition for the first time in their history, which is hyperbolic enough. However, the aforementioned poll lead has slipped, and people are still unsure of what the Party stands for. After initial promise, Ed Miliband’s ‘One Nation’ rhetoric hasn’t ignited an unstoppable charge towards Number 10, and the Party hasn’t fully capitalised on an unpopular Coalition. Tribal and opportunistic opposition motions may help the Labour Party in the short term, but Ed Miliband won’t become Prime Minister by just saying “I’m not David Cameron or Nick Clegg”. Time is relatively on their side, but we are well past the halfway point of this Parliament. Miliband has to deal with these pressures and pressure within his own Party; the trade unions. If his proposed reforms succeed, then his leadership will be emboldened. Otherwise, he could be doomed to defeat.

David Cameron will almost certainly go in 2015 if the Conservatives do not win. He has still not been forgiven by his rebellious backbenchers for not winning a majority in 2010, and the popularity of UKIP has only convinced them even more that Cameron has abandoned ‘true Conservative’ values. The vote on the Right will no doubt be split; he has to hope that he can ‘do a Harry Truman’ (see the 1948 US Presidential Election), otherwise Farage’s Party may well deprive him of seats without gaining any themselves. History may not be kind to Cameron if the likely 2015 scenario succeeds; he could well be remembered as the new Ted Heath.

Contrary to many thoughts, the country has a lot to gain from a strong Lib Dem showing; a proposed £12,500 tax free threshold post-2015 is a good start. This plan would lift everyone earning the minimum wage out of income tax altogether, an ambitious and progressive plan building upon the already noble quest of a £10,000 tax free-threshold. If a proposed Coalition with Labour works, a £2 million Mansion Tax would be inevitable; another progressive move and one that effectively taxes expensive property without the prospect of tax avoidance. A Coalition with Labour would be far from harmonious, and I cannot imagine Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister to Ed Miliband. Nevertheless, Ed Balls has said that he “could work with Vince Cable”, a former SDP member. In the unlikely event of Coalition Mark 2, Lib Dems could be a break on the Tories again, halting unfair policies as they have done in this Coalition, such as an Inheritance Tax cut, letting schools be run for profit and firing staff at will.

The Liberal Democrats still have a considerable task to halt low poll numbers, and to convince sceptics to vote (or vote again) for them. However, the pressures of Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP appear far greater, and their position in the headlights of media scrutiny only adds to that. Nick Clegg emerged after the first 2010 Election Leader’s Debate as a man on the rise after someone who had nothing to lose. As a Party with nothing to lose, they can emerge from the sidelines again, with the other three political parties paying the price in some way.