Nigel Farage should be barred from any General Election TV debate, and here’s why

As I start, I’m aware of the accusations that will inevitably be levelled at me; sour grapes, because UKIP have overtaken the ‘toast’ Lib Dems in the opinion polls. I confess that the polls do not make for comfortable reading as it stands, but at the heart of this debate is a rational, pragmatic answer. Where do we draw a line? Sooner rather than later the issue of another round of TV election debates will arise, no doubt focusing on the potential no-show of David Cameron and the Conservative Party. However, what will also make headlines is UKIP’s demand for inclusion, with Nigel Farage threatening court action if his party are excluded. He should not be allowed a podium in the debates, and here’s why.

With reference to Alex Salmond and the SNP’s exclusion from the debates in 2010, Farage commented “he only contested 60 seats, we’re intending to contest 630 or 640. It would be expensive to go to court but I would not preclude it”. However, if he is to use this logic as a reason for inclusion, then the Monster Raving Loony Party could try and muster together enough money to contest as many seats, and therefore merit a TV debate podium. Furthermore, if UKIP are to have a podium with no representatives in parliament, then what’s to stop the Green Party from making similar demands with their one MP? Should George Galloway and the Respect Party have a role in the debate too due to their by-election success in Bradford? If we are to base it on the fact that UKIP have 11 MEPs, then the BNP could demand representation with their single MEP. Farage may claim that UKIP are the new third party in British politics, but this has not yet been borne out in parliamentary representation.

Farage may well point to the poll figures as justification, but this is hardly the most credible territory. The Liberal Democrats were in second place in many opinion polls for much of the 2010 Election campaign, before gaining 23% of the vote on Election day; a 1% vote share increase from 2005. The SDP-Liberal Alliance had polling figures of around 50% prior to the Falklands War in the early 1980s, with Mrs Thatcher’s Conservatives in third place. The main parties could only dream of polling that sort of figure now, and even if UKIP were to raise above the giddy heights of 20% in the polls (which they rarely have), is Farage really going to go to the BBC and present as evidence a series of ‘reliable’ and not so reliable opinion polling?

David Cameron remains sceptical of another TV debate even with Farage out of the picture, so it would be a great shame if this democratic and engaging process was to be halted for any reason, whether exacerbated by Farage’s presence or not. I’ve said ‘trust the people’ in this blog before, and I meant it. If TV debate were to occur for the European Elections in 2014, I would have no qualms with UKIP having a podium. With 13 seats won at the 2009 European Elections, UKIP had the joint highest number of MEPs (with Labour), and so would have representative legitimacy. However, the issue is over the UK and the 2015 General Election, and as it stands UKIP have no MPs. As I have mentioned numerous times in the past, Proportional Representation would reinvigorate Elections and include more parties in the parliamentary process; if the likes of UKIP and the Greens were to receive a higher share of parliamentary seats as a consequence, then perhaps the TV debate argument would take a new shape. However, PR for General Elections is a long way off yet.

It is difficult to set a parameter or entry requirement for TV debates. If based on the number of seats, then what should the number be? Should it be based on a percentage of seats? There is no straightforward or consensual answer, but as it stands the Lib Dems are a clear third in terms of seats won in 2010 (57 seats); the closest party after that is the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland with 8 seats. The Lib Dems could well lose many seats in 2015, but even if they were to fall to around 20 MPs, the best UKIP can hope for in 2015 is around 5 MPs, under a disenfranchising electoral system. Farage may have more support than for TV debate representation, but we cannot base our decision making on 2015 by preempting electoral results.

With a strong surge in support, it is understandable for Farage to demand a stronger voice, and if he is to raise concerns about First Past the Post (which he labelled “a disaster” for UKIP), then I can more than sympathise. A large increase in UKIP’s vote share and no MPs to show for it in 2015 may well put electoral reform back on the agenda (Farage was part of the ‘Yes to AV’ campaign in 2011), but with 0 MPs at present, Farage’s demands for a TV debate podium aren’t built on solid ground.