Lib Dem review of the year

2013 hasn’t been an easy year for the Liberal Democrats, but then again neither were the preceding years of the Coalition. At best, they’ve just hit the double figure mark in the polls, often falling behind UKIP. However, scratch beneath the surface, and it hasn’t all been so bad. In certain areas, the Lib Dems are still winning.

For this review, I’ll do a simple list of positives and negatives during 2013 for the Lib Dems, before making a general conclusion.



Positives

-£10,000 income tax threshold


The Coalition is set to reach the £10,000 target early (2014), and Nick Clegg has outlined plans to push for a £10,500 threshold before 2015. This means that in 2014 a key manifesto pledge will have been fulfilled, something which David Cameron said was “a great idea; I’d love to do it” but “can’t be afforded” in the first TV election debate in 2010. Furthermore, a £10,500 threshold would set the party on the way to their next goal; raising the income tax threshold to the minimum wage level (around £12,500). It is vital, however, for the party to prevent the Tories from taking the credit for this (which George Osborne and company are already trying to do).



-Eastleigh by-election win

This summed up the Lib Dem bulldog spirit, and the virtues of building up strong local support over the years. As I have mentioned in a previous blog post, this by-election victory was all the more astounding given low poll numbers, Chris Huhne’s controversial exit, the sex scandal surrounding Lord Rennard and the surge of UKIP. There are still warning signs; the Lib Dems lost a 19% swing, and the strong UKIP presence no doubt helped to split the Tory vote. However, whilst UKIP’s second place performance grabbed the headlines, the pressure and heat was turned on David Cameron and away from his Coalition partners, something that can be beneficial to the Liberal Democrats and their differentiation strategy before the 2015 election.




-Free school meals


Every child in England between reception and year two will receive free lunches, an initiative worth around £437 per child to families. This was in exchange for a tax break for married couples, but if the Lib Dem leadership is wise enough it can present the trade off as an example of what each Coalition member is prioritising; the Lib Dems want to help out families with young children, the Tories want to focus on marital status and a piecemeal tax cut.



-Blocked Tory agendas


David Cameron has spoken of a “little black book” of Tory plans that have been blocked by the Liberal Democrats, but will form part of the next Tory manifesto. The Lib Dems have responded well, presenting their own version of the black book and what would have happened without a Coalition; a vital message to convey to the electorate if they are to disprove the myth that the Lib Dems are ‘Tory poodles’. The ‘Snooper’s Charter’ has been blocked, maintaining the civil liberties agenda that the Lib Dems cherish so much. Furthermore, further use of the crude ‘go home’ messages on vans aimed at illegal immigrants has been stopped.

This is a summary of Tory plans blocked this year alone; other prominent victories, such as preventing an inheritance tax cut for millionaires or preventing workers from being fired at will have been achieved by the Liberal Democrats across the Cameron ministry. Emphasising these victories, whilst preventing other unfair Tory plans where possible, is another important area that the Lib Dems need to hammer home to the country if they are to show that they really are a brake on the Tories.




Negatives


-Sarah Teather exit

“Sarah Teather is desperately angry about all those policies she voted for. The alternative of course was not voting for them”. A tweet from Zac Goldsmith MP which sums up well the irony of Teather’s exit, but nevertheless it is an uncomfortable resignation. Teather is one of just 7 female MPs in the party, and her resignation summation had particularly hard hitting words; “I no longer feel that Nick Clegg’s party fights sufficiently for social justice and liberal values on immigration...something did break for me that was never, ever repaired”. Whilst Goldsmith highlighted Teather’s contradictions, her exit brings back memories of unpopular policies, namely the tuition fee increase and increasing VAT to 20%. Also, in not standing down immediately, she is essentially a lame duck MP, and the events sour somewhat her impressive achievement of overturning a Labour majority of over 13,000 in 2003 (Brent East).


-Low poll numbers

The General Election of 2015 isn’t too far away now, and even closer are the European Elections (2014). I won’t hammer out a list of polling figures, but various polling companies and the UK ‘poll of polls’ show the Lib Dems stubbornly just below double figures, a number which won’t translate well if maintained. There’s every chance of the Lib Dems getting hammered in the European Elections; the likely scenario is that UKIP finish first, Labour second, the Tories third and the Lib Dems fourth (or perhaps even lower). Whilst these types of elections aren’t necessarily indicators for national elections (UKIP finished second and Labour finished third in 2009), it can’t be good for morale if the Liberal Democrats do badly. Taking any potential Coalition popularity out of the question, as the most pro-European party in the UK the Lib Dems will do well to present a positive message in the light of growing Euroscepticism. The party needs to replicate Eastleigh in 2014 and 2015, and budge up those stubborn poll numbers.




-Chris Huhne exit

In the grand scheme of things, Huhne’s resignation demonstrated the Lib Dem’s fighting spirit, as they retained Eastleigh. However, the party still lost a member of the cabinet, and it made for a couple of weeks of uncomfortable viewing and reading. The Lib Dems lost a prominent MP and battler against the Tories, but Mike Thornton’s victory in Eastleigh and the passage of time has meant that Huhne’s exit hasn’t lived long in the memory.


Conclusion

Steady progress has been made, with some promising outlooks for the future. 2013 was certainly a far better year for the Lib Dems than preceding ones in the Coalition (it can’t get much worse than late 2010 or 2011), but more needs to be done. In the negatives section, the exits of Huhne and Teather can be shaken off (and to an extent already have been), but increasing the poll numbers will be a far more difficult task. The party have achieved some good policy initiatives as listed above, and on the national front unemployment is down to 7.4%, with a record number of people in work (over 30 million). However, more needs to be done on youth unemployment, along with the national shame of people resorting to food banks (some 350,000 people).


With regards to hopes for 2014, the party needs to keep on blocking unpopular measures that can’t be compromised on, and presenting this to the electorate as a sign that Coalitions can work (and indeed, that a Lib Dem presence is vital). Furthermore, the party must face the daunting task of the European Elections, with a UKIP victory and a Lib Dem slump the likely outcomes as it stands. Nevertheless, 2013 has show that slowly, but surely, the Liberal Democrats’ ‘muscular liberalism’ is starting to take effect.