I'm now a fiscal conservative...when it comes to football

Make sure you re-read the title of this blog before jumping to conclusions. I've not switched party allegiance or radically altered my views, but the transfer spending of Derby County has given me some cause for concern.

I'm going against the grain on this issue somewhat. Football fans don't tend to complain when their club spends money. In many ways, after the austerity years between 2009-2013, it is a welcome relief to see Derby County splashing the cash. As recently as 2013 Johnny Russell was considered our 'big' summer signing at £750,000. Compare that to 2015, where we broke our transfer record twice and spent £20 million. It's easily the most that Derby have spent in one window in their history (when not adjusting for inflation).

Everything seems great in theory. The owner, Mel Morris, is a Derby fan born and bred, and thanks to Candy Crush Saga is a very rich man indeed. I'm all for local ownership, and Morris has made all the right noises regarding fan appreciation and having the best interests of the club at heart. I also greatly admire Chief Executive Sam Rush's efforts for the club. After years of being pushovers in the transfer market and talking about 'Shaun Barker-type fees', it's encouraging to see us flex our muscles.

The problem is that there's an element of history repeating itself here. When Lionel Pickering became Derby owner in the early 1990s, he oversaw a similar level of spending in a bid to gain promotion. Ironically, it was only when Derby tightened the purse strings and engaged in wheeling and dealing that promotion was achieved in 1996. Derby were lucky to have a dedicated owner back then, as I believe they do now. One thing that couldn't hit Derby back in the 1990s was Financial Fair Play (FFP). The noises from the club are that we still have room to manoeuvre, but I do worry if we don't go up this year that we will be affected.

Having spent £20 million in the summer, I thought that Derby would make do and use the odd loan signing. Instead, we've spent close to another £4 million in January on Abdoul Camara and Nick Blackman, and the transfer window is still young. Again, I'm in the strange position of thinking "stop spending!" I know that Portsmouth are an overused example of what can happen when you don't control transfer spending, but they are still a warning sign.

There are positives. The bulk of our transfer spending has gone on three of our most important players; Tom Ince, Bradley Johnson and Jacob Butterfield. Of our signings over the summer, there's yet to be a complete failure. The closest to failure is Alex Pearce, who has yet to feature in the league this season (however, he came on a free transfer). Paul Clement has also stuck with picking players on merit; some of our best performers this season have been players that Clement didn't sign (Keogh, Thorne, Russell, Christie etc.).

Furthermore, there is the brutal reality that it's almost impossible to get promoted to the Premier League without spending your way there. Derby very nearly made it in 2014 on low expenditure, and Burnley went up that year on a shoestring. Derby aren't alone in spending large amounts in the Championship this season, although they lead the way by quite some distance. It's a strange position to be in. After seasons of holier than thou posturing (often aimed in the direction of Nottingham Forest), we are now no longer the underdogs.

I don't mean to sound like a Scrooge. We're second in the league, playing good football and we have strength in depth. This blog post and accusations of spending too much will be immaterial if we get promoted in May. I've already heard the cliché that what we're spending is a drop in the ocean compared to how much promotion is worth (some estimates say an initial £130 million). I also think that the amount we've spent, whilst alarmingly high, has been spent relatively wisely. The club also has a great fanbase and new revenue streams.

I want to finish by urging caution. I know that "if we get promoted then it won't matter", but what about the possibility that we won't go up? Is the wage bill sustainable? Staking your lavish spending on getting promoted is a dangerous assumption to make.

Transfers in

Date from	Position	Nationality	Name	From	Fee
1 July 2015	DM		Chris Baird	West Bromwich Albion	Free transfer
1 July 2015	CF		Darren Bent	Aston Villa	Free transfer
1 July 2015	GK		Scott Carson	Wigan Athletic	Undisclosed
1 July 2015	CB		Alex Pearce	Reading	Free transfer
1 July 2015	ST		Andreas Weimann	Aston Villa	£2,750,000
3 July 2015	LW		Tom Ince	Hull City	£4,750,000
23 July 2015	CB		Jason Shackell	Burnley	£3,000,000
1 September 2015	CM		Jacob Butterfield	Huddersfield Town	£4,000,000
1 September 2015	CM		Bradley Johnson	Norwich City	£6,000,000
4 January 2016	LW		Abdoul Camara	Angers	£1,250,000
6 January 2016	ST		Nick Blackman	Reading	£2,500,000

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Derby_County_F.C._season#Transfers_in