David Cameron: the nearly man

During the 2015 General Election campaign, David Cameron told the BBC's James Landale that he would not seek a third term as Prime Minister. After the unexpected Conservative victory in May 2015 and the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, it looked like Cameron was going to have a smooth ride. Instead, the Brexit vote last week means that the Prime Minister's record is now tainted.

DC was so nearly the first Prime Minister to leave of his own free will since Harold Wilson (you may suggest Tony Blair had that luxury, but he was under enormous pressure to quit). A 'Remain' vote could have been the culmination of his goal years ago as leader of the opposition to "stop banging on about Europe". Instead, Cameron joins Mrs Thatcher (the poll tax) and Tony Blair (Iraq) in having a toxic legacy. He put his "heart and soul" in to keeping Britain inside the European Union, but his referendum gamble didn't pay off.

In truth, DC would have been under pressure to go early even in the event of a 'Remain' vote, as his quarrelsome backbenchers would have inevitably  kicked up a stink over the terms of his renegotiation with the European Union. This only adds to my view that the Conservatives are a somewhat ungrateful party:

Ted Heath unexpectedly won the 1970 Election and led his party to support remaining in the EEC: dumped.

Margaret Thatcher won three landslide election victories: dumped.

John Major unexpectedly won the 1992 Election: given hell.

David Cameron unexpectedly won the 2015 Election: given hell and forced out.

For all of his foibles, I had confidence in Cameron as Prime Minister. Whenever anyone (inevitably the far Left) demanded his resignation, I pointed out that any replacement would be worse, not better. DC once said that he's "not a deeply ideological person", which many not sound inspiring to some, but is a welcome relief to others who have lived under fierce ideological battles. The list of candidates for the Tory leadership (and therefore Prime Minister) are hardly encouraging: Theresa May, Michael Gove, Liam Fox, Stephen Crabb and Andrea Leadsom. Against expectations, DC's main rival Boris Johnson has announced that he won't stand for the leadership. Stephen Crabb appears closest to continuing DC's 'One Nation' Toryism, but he has question marks over his connection to gay 'cure' groups. DC would never come out with awful rhetoric on immigration as Nigel Farage does, nor as a Conservative is he anywhere near the hateful bile of Donald Trump in America (I maintain that DC would be a Democrat).

DC so nearly built a potent Tory legacy: he led the first Coalition government since the war, defeated electoral reform in 2011, cut taxes for low paid workers, prevented a Labour-SNP alliance and significantly reduced the budget deficit. As a pragmatist who isn't very ideological, he was never going to win friends. From the Left, his spending cuts across the board and reforms to welfare attracted ire, and from the Right he was lambasted for not doing enough on immigration, governing with the Liberal Democrats, and of course not 'standing up to Europe'.

DC's goal of 'detoxifying' the Tory brand was only partially achieved in 2010, and his victory in 2015 was more a result of fearing the SNP and Labour than vindicating DC's premiership. The Conservatives remain a bitter and divided party, and one that is sure to be disappointed when they realise that their expectations on immigration will be curtailed. DC's referendum offer in the last Parliament was borne out of placating his backbenchers and UKIP voters, but such a move ultimately went against the national interest.

History may look kindly upon DC in the future if his successors mess things up, but his reckless gamble on Britain's future with the European Union backfired, and that sadly will be Mr Cameron's lasting legacy.

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