The good, the bad and the ugly; what to expect from the Tories

The Conservatives won their first overall majority since 1992 (the year I was born!) on polling day, and in theory should be ‘freed’ from the shackles of coalition. However, as with John Major and the last majority Conservative government, I fear that David Cameron will be held hostage to the many rebellious Tory backbenchers in his ranks. I’ll briefly outline below the good and bad policies to expect from the Tories in the next Parliament.


Good:

• Tax free minimum wage. Raising the income tax threshold was deemed unaffordable by David Cameron in the first TV debate of 2010, but the policy was adopted after the Liberal Democrats made it a red line in coalition talks. The Tories have shamelessly tried to take the credit for it ever since, but I very much hope that Cameron delivers on his manifesto pledge to increase the threshold from £10,600 to £12,500 in the next Parliament, meaning that anyone earning the minimum wage won’t pay any income tax. If the National Insurance threshold can be aligned to this, low and middle income earners will receive a further tax boost. This policy is crucial if the Tories are to convince anyone that they’re on the side of workers.

• £8bn for the NHS. The NHS Chief Executive Simon Stevens has said that the NHS will need an extra £8bn a year by 2020. Again, the Liberal Democrats were the first to meet this pledge, with the Conservatives following suit (although they didn’t say how they’d afford it). Extra NHS funding is a must, so I welcome this pledge. However, the government needs to look at how this extra money is spent, and I hope that mental health is seen as a top priority.

• Cutting the deficit. I don’t agree with the composition of the cuts that the Conservatives are proposing, but the deficit has to be addressed in order for public spending on key services such as the NHS and education to gradually increase again in line with a growing economy. The Tories have set 2018 as the target for eliminating the deficit (the same year as Liberal Democrat plans), and after missing their 2015 target it’s vital that the 2018 goal is achieved.

• 30 hours free childcare per week for 3 and 4 year olds. This policy builds upon the coalition’s 15 hours of free childcare for 3 and 4 year olds (and 40% of two year olds). A good move for helping families across the UK.

• Postgraduate loans. A coalition announcement from the last Autumn Statement, it has curiously slipped under the radar a little bit. This will entail government-backed loans of up to £10,000 from the 2016-17 academic year, benefitting 40,000 students. It’s crazy that students who get good grades are unable to continue their studies after undergraduate levels simply because of finances; I think this policy is a fantastic idea.

Bad:

• Scrapping the Human Rights Act. The Human Rights Act is often subjected to misrepresentation from the right wing press, who often (wrongly) associate it with the European Union. The Human Rights Act is a scapegoat for the likes of The Daily Mail, who often blame it as the reason terrorist subjects cannot be deported. The proposal to scrap the Human Rights Act was blocked by (you guessed it) the Liberal Democrats. I’m not an expert in law, but this proposal seems ham fisted at best.

• EU referendum. I question the motives for the EU referendum. Is it really with the best of intentions, for ‘giving people a say’, or is it simply a manoeuvre to silence UKIP and the Eurosceptics in the Conservative Party? Whilst there are still concerns over the economy and the NHS, I’m worried that Parliamentary business will mainly consist of trying to get a deal from the EU prior to a referendum in 2017. I can already predict vitriol from Eurosceptics when David Cameron (presumably) publically recommends a vote to stay in the EU. A tempting thought, however, is that the referendum could ‘lance the UKIP boil’, so to speak.

• £12bn of welfare cuts. One of the biggest misconceptions about the welfare bill is that the bulk of it is spent on the unemployed. In reality, pensions take up the vast majority of welfare spending. Not only is a further £12bn of cuts to welfare a significant amount (the Liberal Democrats wanted £3bn of welfare cuts), where will these cuts fall? The Tories plan to lower the benefit cap from £26,000 a year to £23,000, but there has been scant detail about any further plans for cutting welfare. It’s of great concern as to where the £12bn will come from, and who will be affected as a consequence.

• Civil liberties. With the authoritarian Theresa May no longer beholden to Liberal Democrat resistance, it looks like the ‘Snooper’s Charter’ could be revived. The Liberal Democrats blocked this intrusive piece of legislation during the coalition, but despite consensus on issues such as scrapping ID cards, it doesn’t look like civil liberties will be prioritised in the next Parliament. Expect fierce criticism from the likes of Shami Chakrabarti. 

• A law to prevent tax rises. Seriously, who thought up this idea? A law designed to prevent tax increases for income, VAT and National Insurance, it’s straight out of the US Tea Party book. It’s not only shortsighted, but it’s a window dressing policy designed to ensnare political opponents. It reminds me of George Bush senior’s “read my lips; no new taxes” pledge. Remind me of how that one worked out...

Ugly:

David Cameron: “For too long, we have been a passively tolerant society, saying to our citizens 'as long as you obey the law, we will leave you alone'”. This is a worrying sign of things to come.



I’ll leave you with a quote from William Gladstone, one which is still very applicable today, and which sums up the current situation and approach:


“Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear”.