It would seem strange to be chirpy about being a Liberal Democrat this summer, given the nature of the party’s defeat in May. However, not only has a charismatic and talented leader been elected (Tim Farron), but the leadership contest took place without melodrama. The only other contender (Norman Lamb) would have also been an excellent choice, and there was a lack of unpleasantness during the campaign; questions over voting records and specific policy opinions was about as contentious as it got. Tim and Norman have differing approaches and backgrounds, but there is a broad acceptance between them and the party over where we went wrong, where we got things right and where to go next.
Contrast this with the Labour Party. Whilst the Lib Dem leadership campaign was wrapped up in mid-July, Labour’s contest will drag on until September; that’ll be a third of the year gone since the election in May. Harriet Harman, a politician who encapsulates the Labour tribalist “you’re in bed with the Tories” stance, decided to be “a new kind of Opposition” and ordered the party to abstain on the Conservative Party’s welfare changes (‘Labstain’, anyone?). This resulted in rebellions and bitter infighting, along with various subgroups trying to pull the party in different directions. The choices on offer are pretty uninspiring. The phrase ‘principled’ is trotted out too often, and is mainly used to describe politicians who’ve never had to deal with the realities and constraints of power; in that respect, Jeremy Corbyn is indeed principled. However, so is Liz Kendall. She has been as frank about her beliefs and what she feels is wrong with the party as Corbyn has, but obviously with drastically different viewpoints. You can be guaranteed a cheer at Labour Party hustings if you trot out the same old lines. It takes guts to say what people don’t want to hear, but need to hear.
Whilst I’m not a Labour Party member, I fail to see the appeal of Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper. Both feel too much like ‘continuity Miliband’, and the former in particular is a source of confusion. Burnham spoke about “weeping” when he saw the proposed NHS reforms during the Coalition, yet as Health Secretary in the previous government he oversaw the privatisation of Hinchinbrook Hospital. Burnham was also a keen advocate of the “x days to save the NHS” phrase, even saying “we mean it this time!” on Twitter, yet he also acknowledged on Newsnight earlier this year that “there is a role for the private sector” in the NHS. Cooper would face unfair comparisons to her husband Ed Balls if she becomes leader, but nothing during her time as shadow Home Secretary struck me as impressive or remarkable.
Labour could have taken the pragmatic approach after their defeat in May. We’ve had One Nation/Blue/Pre-distribution Labour proposed to the electorate, along with scare stories over the NHS and “these cuts aren’t necessary…oh wait they actually are, but we’ll be nicer with them”, and it didn’t work. It could have carefully examined why the electorate rejected them, and tried to engage with public opinion. Instead, the party is in danger of retreating to a familiar comfort zone. Anyone whose reasons for Labour’s defeat are the contradictory maxims of “the voters are stupid” and “it was an undemocratic result” clearly don’t want to win elections. This approach is out of touch with reality, and it means never acknowledging where you’ve gone wrong. Yes, our voting system is very unfair, but which party has helped to collude with the Tories over the years to block reform? I certainly disagree with the reflection of seats to vote share, but one party clearly got the largest share of the vote.
The lessons from history should be obvious. The Labour Party convinced itself after the 1979 defeat to Margaret Thatcher that the Jim Callaghan government had been too right wing, and as a result allowed the militant tendency and radical left to take over. The result was 18 years in Opposition. Similarly, Corbynism will tell you that Ed Miliband was too right wing, and will point to the SNP as evidence. The reality is that Labour can only win in 2020 if it convinces Tory voters from 2010 and 2015 to switch allegiances. Yes, sweeping up the Green Party vote would help a bit, but gambling on a strategy of having hegemony of ‘the left’ will not carry the party back to power. Even if Labour were to miraculously gain 50 seats off the SNP in Scotland (good luck with that), they would still need (roughly) another 50 seats in England, and where will those seats come from? The SNP surge was the result of a generational shift, but also of Labour having taken the seats there for granted. They cannot afford for the same thing to happen in England and Wales.
Jeremy Corbyn may well make Labour members feel good about themselves with talk of the spirit of Clause 4, but it will not lead the party back to power. In the UK, elections are won from the centre ground. This doesn’t mean that New Labour should be heralded as perfection (I’ve been very critical of Tony Blair in this blog), but it does mean that veering too far one way or another will consign you to Opposition, just as the Tories realised between 1997 and 2010. The Corbyn approach is actually a very insular one; he may argue that he’s standing up for Labour values, but what about the values and opinions of others? Shouldn’t the country “come first” (as Liz Kendall said)? There are moderates out there who hold strong convictions and are uncomfortable with having a Tory majority, but who don’t want a return to the politics of the 1980s. Does their opinion matter? To win an election you have to build up a broad coalition and show that you are not just appealing to special interest groups (this applies to the Conservatives as well as to Labour). I’m not making the argument that the Conservatives didn’t appeal to special interest groups, but when Labour continued to be confused about its economic record and didn’t explicitly rule out any deal with the SNP, why would moderates have voted for Labour?
There are opportunities. The Conservative Party is a well-oiled machine at the moment, but it could tear itself apart over the upcoming EU Referendum. The Conservatives never stop “banging on about Europe” (to take a David Cameron quote out of context), and that’s where a united and credible movement needs to capitalise. The country is entitled to a strong and effective Opposition However, if Corbyn becomes the new leader of the Labour Party, we will have to face up to a Tory majority in 2020.
No comments:
Post a Comment