How to beat the Tories in 2020?

The title does not have a typo. The question mark is there because, as things stand, it looks very likely that the Conservatives will win the 2020 UK General Election. Having successfully defied Mervyn King’s prediction (to be out of power for a generation), things are looking rosy for the Tories. As I speculated in my previous blog post, the Labour Party looks to be drifting leftwards away from electability. Labour needs to win 100 more seats in 2020 just to get a very thin overall majority. I’ll try and speculate below as to how the odds can be defied.

1) The economy

This battleground won’t be easy. The phrase “cutting too far, too fast” didn’t work in May, and although George Osborne missed his ambitious target of eliminating the deficit by 2015, the public still trust the Conservatives more with the nation’s finances. If we are to assume that the budget will be eliminated over the course of this Parliament, the Opposition needs to switch their argument on to how a budget surplus can be used progressively and fairly. Crucially, the Labour Party needs to convince voters that it isn’t going to go on a lavish spending spree. The economy is safe territory for the Tories, but by the end of this Parliament they’ll have had nearly the same amount of time in office as New Labour did, so the tactic of blaming “the mess left by the last Labour government” won’t endure; this presents a potential opportunity. Also, if the “northern powerhouse” doesn’t come off, then the Opposition needs to present strong proposals for devolution that benefit more than just the south of England.

2) The NHS 

A far more subtle tact is needed here. Scare stories of privatising the NHS didn’t work in 2015, so why would they work in 2020? No major party is seriously proposing to privatise the NHS, and the Tories have pledged to meet NHS Chief Executive Simon Stevens’s £8bn extra a year funding target. Optimistically, I’ve no reason to doubt that this target won’t be met in theory, but the argument needs to focus on how this money is spent. Big questions need to be asked and addressed: How should a 21st century NHS operate? How will the NHS cope with a growing population and life expectancy? How do we cope with stigmas and mental health concerns? These aren’t new questions, but they need to be a primary focus, rather than unhelpful “3 days to save the NHS” soundbites.

3) Europe 

As things stand, this is a key weak spot to exploit. The Conservative Party has never been harmonious on this topic, and it could tear itself apart over the upcoming EU referendum. Conservatives (rightly) tell Scottish nationalists that the result of the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum should be respected, but should the “In” campaign win (and I believe it will, but not by a huge margin) I seriously doubt that Eurosceptics will “put up, or shut up” (to quote John Major). Not only can infighting be capitalised on, but the argument can switch back round to key areas like the economy and the NHS; imagine the following attack on the government at PMQs: “whilst many Brits still aren’t feeling the effects of the recovery, and whilst our NHS is stretched, the Prime Minister is allowing his party to ‘bang on about Europe’ and lecture the British people instead of respecting how they voted in the EU referendum. As the Prime Minister prepares his retirement plans, it’s nice to know what the priorities of his party are…” and so on. A speechwriter could do a much better job of that rant, but it presents a potent image. If the public see an incumbent government disregarding the results of a democratic referendum, they may look elsewhere for casting a vote.

4) Who will be the Prime Minister after David Cameron? 

In a candid interview with James Landale during the 2015 election campaign, Cameron admitted that he wouldn’t seek a third term as Prime Minister. It is presumed that he’ll stand down some time after the EU referendum in 2016 or 2017. Cameron may well be tempted to cling on for a little while, a tactic which unsettled the Labour Party when Tony Blair was preparing to quit. If the EU referendum takes place in 2017, when will Cameron go? 2018? 2019? Perhaps right up until March 2020? The Opposition will need to be on their guard to prepare against Cameron’s successor (thought to be George Osborne at the moment). The longer Cameron clings on, the more uncomfortable it could get for the electorate, who will want a decisive leadership result as soon as possible. Now’s the time to do the homework on what an Osborne/May/Johnson/Gove premiership would look like, and how to respond. Oh, and the awkward question of whether to clap Cameron at his last PMQs (see Tony Blair in 2007).

5) Prepare as if you are the government

 Bear with me on this one. I’m not a fan of Tony Blair, but he was right to note in his autobiography that an Opposition should prepare to the extent that it could be seen as a credible government at any given time. This means viewing Labour as a credible government in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019, not just in 2020. Opposition for opposition’s sake is a bad approach (it didn’t work for Ed Miliband), and it’s far easier to say what you’re against than what you are for. I quite like the idea (provided it’s feasible and realistic) of an Opposition presenting an alternative Budget each year, perhaps not necessarily straight after the Chancellor’s speech, but within the Budget week. If the government proposes unpopular/ineffectual reforms, say what reforms you would propose. This gives more confidence to the electorate in 2020 about how an alternative government would work. This approach takes time and consideration, but what’s wrong with forward planning? Labour did propose alternative measures in the last Parliament, but they were too often reactionary and populist (think energy price freezes). Furthermore, the hymn sheet seemed to change from month to month (remember predistribution Labour, anyone? One Nation Labour?). By nature, some Opposition tendencies have to be short term responses, but you should have a broad goal for the next five years, as opposed to simply saying how horrible everything is.

6) A broad coalition of voters 

Although the Labour Party denied it, the “35% strategy” pursued in the last Parliament was designed to pick up disaffected Lib Dem votes whilst retaining the core Labour vote, in the hope that it’d be enough to clinch an overall majority. This is a narrow approach, and an insular strategy of sweeping up the Left vote (Greens, SNP etc.) in 2020 will not win the election. Local government is being squeezed, and Labour must absolutely speak up for public sector workers who are feeling the pain of wage restraint and cutbacks. It’s absolutely right to stick up for the underdog, for those not benefitting in the recovery. However, Labour must also speak for those who are self-employed, who run a business, who want to buy their first house and so on. The country should always come first, and that means fighting for everyone, not just one demographic. To a large extent, moderates voted for the Tories in 2015 out of fear of the alternative.

These approaches are by no means easy solutions, nor are they guarantees of success. As noted above, I believe that the Opposition should play on the notion of not trusting the Tories to progressively use a budget surplus. However, if unemployment continues to fall (and I of course hope it will continue to drop) then the public may well trust the Tories for another five years. Many more issues need to be tackled. Losing the 2020 election is not a price worth paying for indulgence and heavy idealism.